Candlestick patterns: how often each one actually works
We measured every candle and pattern on 82,301 daily candles from 32 crypto markets on Kraken, 2013–2026. These are the 44 shapes with at least 30 cases; the other 45 are too rare in our data to put an honest number on, and you meet them in the app.
“Risen” means a rise larger than half that market's typical five-candle move. A bullish pattern promises a rise and a bearish one a fall, each larger than half that market's typical five-candle move; anything smaller counts as a promise not kept.
Single candles
| Candle | Direction | Risen after 5 | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Marubozu | Bearish | — | 227 |
| Closing Marubozu | Depends on context | — | 1,764 |
| Doji | Neutral | — | 3,947 |
| Dragonfly Doji | Bullish | 31% | 90 |
| Four-Price Doji | Neutral | — | 102 |
| Gravestone Doji | Bearish | — | 88 |
| Hammer | Bullish | 33% | 1,060 |
| Hanging Man | Bearish | — | 295 |
| High-Wave Candle | Neutral | — | 1,229 |
| Inverted Hammer | Bullish | 36% | 691 |
| Long Black Candle | Bearish | — | 6,928 |
| Long-Legged Doji | Neutral | — | 501 |
| Long White Candle | Bullish | 36% | 7,533 |
| Northern Doji | Bearish | — | 1,301 |
| Opening Marubozu | Depends on context | — | 3,902 |
| Paper Umbrella (Umbrella Line) | Depends on context | — | 2,432 |
| Shooting Star | Bearish | — | 636 |
| Short Candle (Short Day) | Neutral | — | 1,149 |
| Southern Doji | Depends on context | — | 1,446 |
| Spinning Top | Neutral | — | 11,971 |
| Takuri Line | Bullish | 33% | 713 |
| White Marubozu | Bullish | 35% | 334 |
Patterns
| Pattern | Direction | Kept its promise | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish Doji Star | Bearish | 36% | 45 |
| Bearish Engulfing | Bearish | 35% | 1,391 |
| Bearish Harami | Bearish | 34% | 136 |
| Bearish Harami Cross | Bearish | 33% | 64 |
| Bearish Separating Lines | Bearish | 35% | 616 |
| Bullish Doji Star | Bullish | 41% | 37 |
| Bullish Engulfing | Bullish | 34% | 1,540 |
| Bullish Harami | Bullish | 40% | 158 |
| Bullish Harami Cross | Bullish | 39% | 49 |
| Bullish Separating Lines | Bullish | 35% | 421 |
| Falling Window | Bearish | 39% | 49 |
| Last Engulfing Bottom | Bullish | 38% | 1,657 |
| Last Engulfing Top | Bearish | 39% | 1,405 |
| Matching Low | Bullish | 40% | 85 |
| Morning Star | Bullish | 44% | 32 |
| Rising Window | Bullish | 50% | 34 |
| Three Inside Down | Bearish | 29% | 77 |
| Three Inside Up | Bullish | 35% | 71 |
| Three Outside Down | Bearish | 37% | 644 |
| Three Outside Up | Bullish | 35% | 710 |
| Tweezers Bottom | Bullish | 33% | 87 |
| Tweezers Top | Bearish | 27% | 102 |
Every shape has its full study card in the app, with the course, practice on real charts and the statistics by horizon and by trend.
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