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Candlestick patterns: how often each one actually works

We measured every candle and pattern on 82,301 daily candles from 32 crypto markets on Kraken, 2013–2026. These are the 44 shapes with at least 30 cases; the other 45 are too rare in our data to put an honest number on, and you meet them in the app.

“Risen” means a rise larger than half that market's typical five-candle move. A bullish pattern promises a rise and a bearish one a fall, each larger than half that market's typical five-candle move; anything smaller counts as a promise not kept.

Single candles

CandleDirectionRisen after 5Cases
Black MarubozuBearish—227
Closing MarubozuDepends on context—1,764
DojiNeutral—3,947
Dragonfly DojiBullish31%90
Four-Price DojiNeutral—102
Gravestone DojiBearish—88
HammerBullish33%1,060
Hanging ManBearish—295
High-Wave CandleNeutral—1,229
Inverted HammerBullish36%691
Long Black CandleBearish—6,928
Long-Legged DojiNeutral—501
Long White CandleBullish36%7,533
Northern DojiBearish—1,301
Opening MarubozuDepends on context—3,902
Paper Umbrella (Umbrella Line)Depends on context—2,432
Shooting StarBearish—636
Short Candle (Short Day)Neutral—1,149
Southern DojiDepends on context—1,446
Spinning TopNeutral—11,971
Takuri LineBullish33%713
White MarubozuBullish35%334

Patterns

PatternDirectionKept its promiseCases
Bearish Doji StarBearish36%45
Bearish EngulfingBearish35%1,391
Bearish HaramiBearish34%136
Bearish Harami CrossBearish33%64
Bearish Separating LinesBearish35%616
Bullish Doji StarBullish41%37
Bullish EngulfingBullish34%1,540
Bullish HaramiBullish40%158
Bullish Harami CrossBullish39%49
Bullish Separating LinesBullish35%421
Falling WindowBearish39%49
Last Engulfing BottomBullish38%1,657
Last Engulfing TopBearish39%1,405
Matching LowBullish40%85
Morning StarBullish44%32
Rising WindowBullish50%34
Three Inside DownBearish29%77
Three Inside UpBullish35%71
Three Outside DownBearish37%644
Three Outside UpBullish35%710
Tweezers BottomBullish33%87
Tweezers TopBearish27%102

Every shape has its full study card in the app, with the course, practice on real charts and the statistics by horizon and by trend.

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